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MESOTHELIOMA MORTALITY RATE INCREASES

Model predicts mesothelioma mortality to increase to 2016

Work funded by HSE has revealed an increase in mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain, with 1705 deaths recorded in 2006.

The 2005 a statistical model used to project the future burden of mesothelioma mortality contained uncertainities. In this new report, the model has been refined and credible intervals for model parameters as well as prediction intervals for future cases of mortality amongst males are presented.

The report concludes that mesothlioma mortaility amongst all males is expected to keep increasing, reaching a peak at around 2,040 deaths in the year 2016, with a rapid decline following the peak year. Around 91,000 deaths are predicted to occur by 2050 with around 61,000 of these occurring from 2007 onwards.

Comment: This report highlights the very real hazard presented by asbestos containing materials present in many exising buildings. Management of asbestos and control of any work which may disturb asbestos are key to minimising exposure today. Refurbishment work involving plumbers, joiners, carpenters and electricians poses the greatest risk.

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